Bloggers of The Americas

Ivan Gerardo Cruz - Author/Contributor of Bloggers of the Americas

The yesterday internal elections in Colombia reflects the political reality of the country and what can happen during the next parlamentarian/presidential elections in Colombia , to take place in the first half of next year.

While consultations/elections were only internal within the deteriorated and archaic Liberal Party and the leftist Polo Democratico Alternativo, these are the two strongest opposition forces that could match it to President Uribe and/or the eventual nominee of Uribe, those measly two million votes speak for themselves about how unpopular these two forces are in a country that has about 27 million voters.

Obviously none of the winners of the respective internal consultations, Rafael Pardo and Gustavo Petro, see it the same way as I do.

Rafael Pardo and Gustavo Petro, colombian opposition presidential candidates.

The two politicians were pleased with the results and sure to have enough time to get the alliances and coalitions needed to confront Alvaro Uribe, if the current President decide to go for another reelection or -if not Uribe- the candidate picked iup by Uribe, who may well be the former Minister of Defense Juan Manuel Santos.

Abstentionism again was the big winner yesterday in Colombia, where less than 10 percent of the voters exercised the right to vote. It is clear again that the country is not longer liberal. Neither leftist – never was and never will be -, and much less conservative.

Liberals (Pardo) and radicals (Vargas Lleras) announced a coalition

How are things, the only one that can defeat the high levels of voters abstention in Colombia is Alvaro Uribe Velez, who despite the harsh criticism due to the corruption scandals, due to the “parapolitics”, and Uribe´s poor management of the social problems, the President maintains its very high popularity inside and outside Colombia.

Now , in a possible scenario where the final three main opposition groups join forces against Uribe with a single common candidate, -which would be quite difficult to happen- , the May elections would be a little more closed and more interesting. Otherwise President Uribe will pave the way for a new victory and four more years at the Palacio Nariño.

President of Colombia, Alvaro Uribe Velez

With my hand on my heart, I do believe that would be best for Colombia. I am no friend of any one person to perpetuate in power for 12 years but obviously this will be the decision of the majority of Colombians, because many things are at risk for Colombia, and even for the region. Uribe has demonstrated for seven years to have the character and political will necessary to end the FARC and restore credibility in the state and the country’s international image, damaged seriously during the Samper and Pastrana’s government.

Also foreign investors returned to the country. Tourism has been reactivated, and Uribe´s public security policy allowed to reduce by more than 60 percent the preexistent higher levels of kidnappings, and reduce to zero the bloody take overs by the FARC of colombian villages and small towns, a constant almost daily during the four years of Pastrana administration.

The FARC has been reduced to less than half. The FARC went from having a big part of colombian land released by the Pastrana government for a dialogue that lasted for two years and eventually ended due to the repeated mockery of the guerrillas, to having to move again only in the deepest tropical jungles of the country. They have grown from about 30 thousand men at least 6 years ago to less than 10 thousand at present. Never before has a colombian government been so close to finishing the FARC, and that is why Colombia is needed of four more years of the same. The FARC must be defeated completely, Uribe knows that and that is what the 44 million of Colombians want.

I do not see that Andres Felipe Arias (Uribito), Sergio Fajardo, Noemi Sanin, Gustavo Petro, Rafael Pardo, Antanas Mockus, Lucho Garzon, Enrique Peñaloza or German Vargas Lleras are capable of finishing the work done and defeating the FARC. These people are not fitted for defeating the FARC. They are also not able to cope with Hugo Chávez’s constant attacks. Perhaps the most viable successor to Uribe could be Juan Manuel Santos, who from the Defense Ministry showed that he knows and likes the challenge, which is the major headache in Colombia in recent years.

Hugo Chávez makes Uribe become popular.

But if there’s something right now that position President Uribe to that high pedestal of popularity and public acceptance is the way how he has faced the repeated diplomatic crisis with the government of Hugo Chávez.

Cnel. Hugo Chavez

It is this last point that make it possible for Uribe to recover his popularity of all the years of his first term. And that’s where his government has been strong and determined to defend his rightist positions before the pressures of a region that moves to the left, led by Chavez’s petrodollars, which is very critical of U.S. military ties with Colombia.

Chavez and his self-styled expansionist ideal of a “21st Century Socialism”, have caused in Colombia the highest levels of rejection in the great majority of colombian society, despite small outbreaks of detected “chavism” in some parts of cities like Bogota and Cucuta, this last in the frontier with Venezuela. For the time being, this expansionism is not an issue of concern.

But we must be in alert. There is one thing that can affect the parliamentary and presidential elections of May 2010 and that is the manipulation and blackmail that Chavez can do against more than three million Colombians living in Venezuela and that they could face retaliation and threats from Chavez on subjects like labor and migration if they do not vote for candidates for Congress and the Presidency that will be supported by the Venezuelan lieutenant colonel. It is an issue worth following closely.

Returning with Uribe, the president has fighted with “tooth and nails” in recent months at different stages, to convince the continent that his agreement with the U.S. military does not target the neighbours but to increase the logistical and technological reinforcements needed in the fight against drug trafficking and terrorism in Colombia. And that is in spite of Chavez’s continuos speeches where he dreams day and night with a U.S. invasion of Venezuela starting from Colombian soil.

Uribe´s intervention in Bariloche, Argentina, to the presidents of UNASUR and just days ago in the plenary of the UN, and his repeated complaints against the arms race ocurring in Venezuela and other countries in the region and its new military defense treaty with United States makes Uribe closer to the hearts of the Colombians, despite the individual attempt of some columnists and media to demonize and convict him of scandals in his government.

Its wisdom and tolerance for not sending Chavez to hell, after enduring so many insults of a personal nature, in addition to Chavez aggressive interventionism in the internal affairs of Colombia, have been crucial to make the colombian people closer to Uribe, and even makes it possible for many colombians to openly ask Uribe to change his prudent style and that he should respond Chavez the way he reallly deserves.

Uribe is now more necessary than ever for Colombia. Do not see anyone else with his ability to tackle the risks, the responsibilities and the challenges faced nowadays by the country at this critical time. For now the last word belongs to the Supreme Court, who launched a legal review of the legality of the referendum approved by Congress that would allow the president to run for a second consecutive reelection. Surely it will, for the good of all Colombians.